There’s a three month trial period the attack on pearl harbor essay Despite the increasingly anti-European tone of the debate, the overall likelihood of Britain quitting the EU hasnât really changed since the local elections. True, the probability of the British people voting in favour of staying in the EU in a referendum has fallen. But the chance of such a plebiscite taking place has also probably dropped â because UKIPâs rise makes it less likely that Cameron will be reelected in 2015.